Untangling Brexit: A postcard from Northern Ireland
June marks nine years since the UK voted to leave the European Union. I remember the exact moment I read the headline ‘UK Votes to Leave the EU’ on my phone and the feeling of shock that started to set in. My first thought was, “Er, now what?” Little did I know I would still be asking that question nine years later… Nine years of uncertainty, negotiations, grace periods, frameworks, and meticulously crafted non-statements. But still no solution.
And I don’t mean to trivialise what we all know is a highly complex, highly sensitive negotiation, but it is hard to keep optimistic at times. One man who can certainly relate to this feeling is Roger Pollen. Roger is the Head of the Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) in Northern Ireland which represents around 6,000 members from diverse sectors. I met him the day after his Brexit-themed keynote speech at the GFSB’s 2024 Annual Dinner, during which he delivered a realistic, but optimistic address on how Northern Ireland’s small businesses made it through the post-Brexit landscape.
The Brexit Vote and Its Aftermath
The 2016 UK Referendum saw Northern Ireland voting 56% to remain in the EU, in contrast to Gibraltar’s overwhelming will to stay within the EU with 96% voting remain. Despite these differences, the collective decision was to leave the EU, leading to inevitable separation without a clear plan. The collapse of the Northern Ireland Executive in 2017 further complicated matters, placing the burden on businesses to navigate the uncertain landscape.
According to Roger, FSB Northern Ireland actively engaged with its members through focus groups and policy teams to understand their ambitions and concerns. The outcome was a vision of Northern Ireland as a unique entity capable of leveraging its position between the EU and the UK. This ambitious vision was captured in two policy papers, envisioning Northern Ireland as the ‘Singapore of the Western Hemisphere’, with access to both markets.
Shaping the Debate and Overcoming Challenges
With no Executive ministers, FSB Northern Ireland took the lead in shaping the debate. Roger highlighted their extensive engagement with political leaders, UK Cabinet Members, and the media to keep the issues at the forefront. This proactive approach was necessary to address the numerous challenges posed by the Northern Ireland Protocol (NIP), which Ministers promised would operate without checks on goods between Great Britain and Northern Ireland but quickly proved problematic.
According to Roger, “The border between the EU and Ireland actually exists in the ports in Northern Ireland, which I think is a source of friction and irritation as well, because effectively, it’s Northern Ireland having to impose rules and restrictions on itself that it doesn’t necessarily want. So, if you imagine a lorry load of product coming in from Scotland into Northern Ireland destined for supermarkets to be sold in Northern Ireland, that has to be compliant with the rules of the European Union’s single market or it has to have a very good and clear set of restrictions around it to ensure that it can’t go into that market.
The Sticking Plaster Approach
Roger explained that the initial relief among business owners soon gave way to frustration as the transition period ended in 2020, bringing a slew of bureaucratic hurdles. From second-hand car prices to food safety checks, businesses faced a barrage of issues requiring ‘sticking plaster’ solutions, often termed Grace Periods. These temporary measures, while sometimes effective, highlighted the underlying instability of the NIP.
Roger further elaborated, “That border also has a significance because of the history of the Troubles in Northern Ireland, so there was a general sense that it shouldn’t be reinforced, reinstated, as a hard border where you would check things like customs and identity and so on. “So as a result of that, there was a move to manage the border somewhere else and that ended up being in the Irish Sea between Great Britain and Northern Ireland. It’s there to affect the goods that come into Northern Ireland because they’re deemed to be at risk of going into the EU through Northern Ireland.”
Engaging with Political Entities: A Delicate Balance
FSB Northern Ireland maintained a politically neutral stance, engaging with all parties to advocate for their members’ needs. Roger emphasised that this balanced approach was essential in a region marked by Unionist versus Nationalist politics, ensuring that all business cohorts, especially those most adversely affected, were represented.
Roger’s advice to Gibraltar was clear: “The challenge is to try and envisage what a good future would look like, so you know what you’re working towards. Otherwise, there’s always the temptation to resist things being suggested and proposed rather than having a vision of what you’re actually trying to get to. So when we assessed our market, we identified what we call five cohorts of businesses affected by the protocol. The first cohort was the ones for whom the protocol worked well, like the farming sector. The second cohort was those largely unaffected, like services. The third cohort was largely unaware because they were so small and they got their supplies from somebody in Northern Ireland doing the process for them. The fourth cohort was people protected by grace periods, and the fifth cohort was the ones who were badly affected. When we mapped it out like that and put the focus on the fifth cohort, we realised we couldn’t afford for anybody to be left behind. That started to give us a sense of focusing on what we needed to do.”
Looking Ahead: Potential and Caution
Roger pointed out that the evolving nature of post-Brexit regulations means that Northern Ireland and Gibraltar must remain adaptable. Northern Ireland’s unique access to the EU and UK markets positions it for potential economic resurgence. However, the need for continued advocacy and innovative solutions, such as the proposed Regulatory Compliance Certification Service (RCCS), remains critical.
While Roger acknowledged that “Post-Brexit business is good. By certain metrics, it is very good. There’s quite a lot of confidence, things are going well,” he also noted the need for growth. “In Northern Ireland, there’s X number of people who will start a new business every year per 10,000 population. In England, that’s 2X and in America, it’s 5X. So five times more people per 10,000 in America will start a business this year than in Northern Ireland. Our economy is pretty much treading water. We would typically have a business birth rate of about 10% and a business death rate of about 10%.”
As we continue to face post-Brexit uncertainty, the experiences and survival strategies employed by the FSB in Northern Ireland offer valuable insights and, crucially, hope. Roger Pollen’s experiences highlight the importance of advocacy, strategic planning, and flexibility when facing a post-Brexit landscape. Gibraltar’s small businesses can perhaps draw from these lessons to start finding some sense in the uncertainty and thrive regardless.
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